基于区间证据理论的煤矿生产系统关键危险源风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Essential Hazard Sources in Coal Mine Production System Based on Interval-valued Evidence Theory

为了有效辨识并评价煤矿生产系统中的危险源并对关键危险源进行准确管控,从风险形成的可能性和事故严重度2个维度度量危险源;为最大程度的保留有效信息,在量化过程中引入区间直觉模糊集,允许非隶属度和犹豫度的存在;然后,将各区间模糊信息转化为区间概率分配函数,利用区间证据融合算法进行融合;最后,结合某矿实际,计算该矿各环节危险源的最终风险程度,评价结果更能全面反应专家意见且与实际一致,说明方法的有效性。

In order to effectively idetify and accurately evaluate the hazard sources in coal mine production system and effectively control hazard sources,then,we measure the hazard sources from the possibility of risk formation and accident severity two dimension.To maximumly retain effective information,we introduce interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets in the process of quantification,which contains non-membership degree and hesitancy degree.Then,we transfer the interval fuzzy information into interval basic probability assignment function to fuse the information from different sources by interval-valued evidence theory.Finally,combining the reality of a mine,we calculate the final degree of hazard source of each link.The evaluation results can more comprehensively response expert opinion and are consistent with the actual results,which illustrates the effectiveness of the method.