贵州省碳排放与经济、人口关系研究

Relation Study on Carbon Emission,Economics,and Population in Guizhou

文章根据IPAT模型运用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型及Granger因果检验,对贵州省碳排放与经济增长、人口规模、能源碳强度关系进行实证研究,结果表明:贵州省碳排放与经济增长、人口总量、能源碳强度之间存在着显著的长期均衡关系;当这种长期均衡关系受到短期因素干扰时,调整时间大概要3.505年;碳排放与经济增长、能源碳强度在2009年前不存在显著的因果关系,2009年后存在单向因果关系;相对经济增长和能源碳强度的影响,人口规模的影响较小。

The relation between carbon emission, economic growth, population size, and energy carbon intensity in Guizhou province is examined with IPAT model concerning unit root test, co-integration test,error correction model and Granger causality. The results show： the factors are correlated significantly in a long-terms balance way;when the long-term bal- ance relation is interfered with short-term factors it takes 3. 505 years to adjust;there is no significant causality between carbon emission, economic growth, and energy carbon intensity before 2009 and there is one-direction causality after 2009 ; comparing with the effect of eco- nomic growth on energy carbon intensity, the effect from population size is low.