乌鲁木齐市新型城镇化发展质量综合测度与预测

Comprehensive Measurement and Forecast of the Development Quality of New Urbanization in Urumqi

文章选取乌鲁木齐市为研究对象,基于新型城镇化发展质量的内涵,分别从人口发展质量、经济发展质量、居民生活质量、生态环境质量、基础设施质量、社会发展质量6个方面,构建城镇化发展质量评价指标体系,运用2000—2014年的数据,采用熵值法、线性加权和法等方法测度乌鲁木齐市城镇化发展质量,基于灰色预测对2015-2019年城镇化发展质量进行预测。结果表明:乌鲁木齐城镇化发展质量呈持续上升趋势,根据发展速度可分为2个阶段;乌鲁木齐城镇化过程中各个子系统在不同阶段的作用各不相同;乌鲁木齐城镇化发展过程中经济发展质量、居民生活质量、社会发展质量与城市综合发展质量具有显著相关性,其中社会发展质量起主导作用;根据预测可知未来几年乌鲁木齐城镇化质量呈上升趋势。

Take Urumqi as the research object, based on the connatation of the new pattern urbanization devel- opment quality, building a comprehensive index syetem of urbanization development quality from six -aspects which including the quality of population development, the quality of economic development, residents quality of life, eco- logical environment quality, infrastructure quality and social development quality. Using entropy method, linear weighted sum method assesses the quality of urbanization development in Urumqi by the data from 2000 to 2014 . The results show that the development of urbanization quality in Urumqi showed a rising trend, according to the de- velopment speed can be divided into two stages; Urumqi urbanization process in each subsystem varies in different stages ; In the urbanized process of the Urumqi the social development quality relevance urbanization is the dominant factor, and economic development, quality of life and social development quality three subsystems were positively correlated with urbanization. According to the prediction we can know that the quality of urbanization in Urumqi showed an upward trend in the next few years.