中国区域2020和2030年的SO_2和NO_x排放总量情景预测

Scenarios prediction for emissions of SO_2,NO_x in the year of 2020 and 2030 in China

基于情景分析法预测了2020、2030年不同情景下的中国能源消费量,按不同部门、不同燃料类型的SO_2、NO_x排放因子和去除率,预测了2020和2030年不同情景下的中国SO_2和NO_x排放量。根据计算结果,2020和2030年基准能源与市场情景、政策能源与市场情景和强化政策能源与市场管理情景的SO_2和NO_x排放量依次减小;相比于基准能源与市场情景,强化政策能源与市场管理情景下2020和2030年SO_2排放量分别减少了651.66和846.55万t,NO_x排放量分别减少了409.61和692.76万t。燃煤火电厂、工业和交通部门对SO_2和NO_x排放量的贡献最大,重点加强这3个经济部门的污染控制,可有效降低污染物的排放量。

A scenario analysis predicted the energy consumption in China under different scenarios in 2020 and2030 and,based on emissions factors and removal rates of SO2 and NOx in different sectors and fuel types,to predict the emissions of SO2 and NOx under different scenarios in 2020 and 2030. The calculations showed that the emissions of SO2 and NOx in a basic energy and market scenario,a policy energy and market scenario,and a strengthening policy energy and market management scenario gradually decrease. Compared to the basic energy and market scenario,the SO2 emissions in the strengthening policy energy and market management scenario were reduced by 6. 516 6 and 8. 465 5 million ton and NOx emissions were reduced by 4. 096 1 and 6. 927 6 million ton in 2020 and 2030,respectively. The sectors with the largest SO2 and NOx emissions are coal-fired thermal power plants,industry,and transportation sectors. The most effective means to reduce the emissions of pollutants is to strengthen the control of SO2 and NOx in these three sectors.