天津市义务教育学龄人口规模预测与分析——基于多因素灰色预测模型和人口推算法

On Analysis and Prediction of Schooling Population in Compulsory Education of Tianjin——Based on Multi-Factor Gray Model and Recursive Calculation Method

天津市义务教育采取就近入学的原则,而学龄人口规模与基础教育设施的关系最为密切和直接,因此对义务教育学龄人口规模的预测将影响教育资源的布局与发展.基于灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和线性回归原理,构建人均教育消费支出、义务教育生师比、人均GDP等7个因素影响下的义务教育非户籍学龄人口规模多因素灰色预测模型,再运用推算法获得相应的户籍学龄人口规模.结果显示2014-2020年天津市义务教育非户籍学龄人口规模与区域经济发展存在着耦合性.同时,由于第四次人口生育高峰的影响,天津市"十三五"后期将会出现义务教育需求的快速增长,需要提前做好教育资源的规划与布局.

Neighborhood school compulsory education has been adopted in Tianjin,so the schooling population between the basic education facilities is most closely and directly concerned.The prediction of compulsory schooling population is of great significance to the development of education.Based on the gray forecasting model and linear regression model,multi-factor gray forecasting model of schooling population of census register in compulsory education has been built on seven indexes such as Per Capita Annual Consumption of Education,Student/Teacher Ratio of Compulsory Education,Per Capita of GDP.Then the recursive calculation method helps to get the corresponding household school-age population size.The results show that schooling population of census register in compulsory education and regional economic development has a certain relationship in Tianjin.Because of the influence of the fourth baby boom,the rapid growth of schooling population demand in compulsory education will be up soon,which needs to layout and planning of education resources in advance.