城镇化对碳排放的门槛效应:省际数据的实证研究

Threshold Effects of Urbanization on Carbon Emission:An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Data

基于中国1996-2012年29个省区的面板数据,在环境库兹涅茨曲线的分析框下,采用非动态门槛面板估计方法,考察了城镇化对中国碳排放的门槛效应.研究表明,城镇化对中国碳排放的影响存在显著的门槛效应:当地区人均收入、城镇化水平比较低时,城镇化推进将带来碳排放的显著提升;而当人均收入、城镇化水平较高时,城镇化则会降低碳排放.本文结论为中国城镇化推进、产业结构调整和节能环保政策的制定积累资料.

Based on the panel data from 29 provinces in China during 1996-2012,in the analysis frame of Environmental Kuznets Curve,using non-dynamic panel threshold estimation,this article has empirically examined the threshold effects of urbanization on China′s carbon emissions.Studies show that there are really the threshold effects of urbanization on carbon emission in China：when per capital income or the urbanization stage is low,urbanization will lead to increase in carbon emission significantly,and vice versa.The conclusion of this paper is important for China′s policy formulation in urbanization development,industrial structure adjustment,energy saving and environmental protects.