基于粗糙-模糊集值的城市应急避难所应急能力评价方法

An Evaluation Method for the Emergency Capability of City Emergency Shelters Based on Rough-Fuzzy Set-Valued Statistic Theory

针对城市应急避难所应急能力评价指标体系中评价指标过多,利用粗糙集属性约简理论去除冗余指标.在指标权重的确定时,利用粗糙集属性重要度确定指标客观权重;针对评价指标存在一定的模糊性和随机性,基于模糊集值统计理论,求出各指标的主观权重,得出指标的综合权重,最后得到综合评价结果.结果表明:该应急避难所应急能力还需加强,应急简易厕所指标做得比较好,选址合理性、应急棚宿区、应急供电及应急防疫设施等指标都表现良好,而指标应急指挥中心、应急供水装置、物资储备房、应急广播及应急预案还有待加强.评价结果合理选址合理性、应急供电网、应急简易厕所、应急防疫站对于提高应急适应能力效果明显.

Redundant indicators were rid of the evaluation index system by applying the rough set attribute reduction theory. For the determination of indicators＇ weights, rough set-based attribute significance was applied to determine the objec- tive weights. Considering the fuzziness and randomness existing in the indicators, the subjective weights of indicators were cal- culated. Combining the objective and subjective weights, the overall weights of the indicators were obtained and thus the over- all evaluation results were worked out. A case study shows that the shelter＇s emergency capability needs further improving. The emergency toilets indicator gives a high performance in aspects like site selection, squatter settlements, emergency power supply, and emergency disease control center. While in aspects like the shelter＇s emergency command center, emergency water supply, relief material reserve, emergency broadcast, and emergency response plan, still greater efforts should be made to meet the real needs. The evaluation results find that reasonable site selection, emergency power supply, toilets, and emergency disease control center can drastically enhance the emergency capability.