广东省制造业空间格局演化及其影响因素研究

EVOLUTION OF SPATIAL PATTERN AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE

本文基于二位数制造业数据,探究了2000—2014年广东省制造业空间格局的演化及影响因素。研究表明,广东省制造业以2005年为拐点,总体呈现先集聚后分散的特征,但行业差异明显。技术密集型产业在珠三角地区保持高集聚的趋势,资本密集型及劳动密集型产业则以不同的扩散速度趋于分散。空间计量回归结果表明,劳动力成本上升及运输成本下降并非广东制造业空间格局演化的主要原因,市场潜力及产业内联系所带来的正外部性抵消了土地等成本提升所带来的负效应。而且,各种影响因素在不同行业的作用不同:市场潜力显著影响劳动密集型产业,资本密集型产业的空间集聚受政府行为影响较大,产业联系则促进技术密集型产业的集聚。

Traced back to Comparative Advantage Theory earliest used to explain the international trade, then to the latest New Economic Geography, theory and empirical analysis explaining the influencing factors of industrial agglomeration and diffusion are increasingly rich. However, most of the existing research on influence factors focus on the manufacturing industry as a whole, but pays little attention to the possibility that the same factors may act differently to different types of industries. Therefore, the focus of this paper lies in how different influencing factors affect in different time and to different industries, which is a supplement to the existing research. The paper figures out the spatial pattern transformation of manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2014 and the influencing factors based on the data of 2-digital manufacturing industries of Guangdong Province. The result shows that, the spatial pattern displayed agglomeration at first and tumed to diffusion since 2005. Manufacturing industries have displayed significant industrial differences. Technology- intensive industries remain relatively stable concentration in Pearl River Delta, while capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries tend to diffuse in different speed. The spatial econometrical result supports new economic geography. It＇s not the change of labor costs and transportation fee that promote industry agglomeration and diffusion. The positive externalities that come from market potential and industry linkages overweigh the negative effect caused by land cost, which explains industries tend to concentrate in areas of high land cost.