劳动力转移、技术进步与资本回报率变动

The effects of rural-to-urban labor migration on technology progress and capital return

近年来,伴随农业劳动力转移的持续放缓,中国资本回报率和投资增速急剧下滑。文章从内生技术进步的角度,探讨了农业劳动力转移对中国技术进步、资本回报率及经济发展的影响。通过对中国31省区1992—2010年工业部门面板数据分析发现,农业劳动力转移对中国全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用,通过增加劳动要素投入和促进技术进步两条渠道提升资本回报率。同时发现,不同的劳动力转移方式的影响及作用机制也有所不同,城市化方式比单纯的就业转移对技术进步的促进作用更为显著。

In recent years, with the slowdown in rural-to-urban labor migration, China＇s capital return and investment growth rate fell sharply. In the perspective of endogenous growth theory, this paper examines the effects of rural-to-urban la- bor migration on China＇s technological progress, capital return and economic development. Using provincial panel data of in- dustrial sector from 1992 to 2010, this paper provides empirical evidence that rural-to-urban labor migration has a significant effect on China＇s total factor productivity （TFP） in industrial sector, and increases capital return through two channels, namely by more labor inputs and by promotion of technological progress. This paper also finds that different modes of labor migration may have different effects and different mechanisms, and the urbanization mode has more significant effects than the simple employment transfer on promotion of technological progress.