中国主要农产品比价关系及其合理性分析

Price Ratio Relation of China's Major Agricultural Products and Its Rationality

农产品比价是对两种农产品相对收益变化的反映,研究农产品比价关系,对政府制定农业发展政策、促进资源的合理配置、改善农民收入水平具有重要意义。分析了2001—2013年的粮棉油糖等主要农产品的价格走势,并从农产品综合比价和单项比价两方面研究了当前农产品价格之间的比率关系,利用相对效益系数法分析判断农产品比价之间的合理程度。研究发现,该时期农产品价格均呈上涨趋势,特别是2006年以来,大豆、棉花和糖的价格波动比较剧烈,而粮食价格则相对稳定;农产品比价的波动较平稳,目前均较为合理。为促进农业稳定发展、合理配置资源,提出了加强政府宏观调控稳定粮食生产、完善农产品价格监测预警机制等相关建议。

The price ratio between two kinds of agricultural products can reflect their profit changes. Studying the price ratio relation of the agricultural products is of great significance for the government to formulate the policy of agricultural development, to promote the rational allocation of resources, and to improve the income level of farmers. The price tendencies of major agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar were analyzed from 2001 to 2013 and the relationship of the price ratio of agricultural products was studied from the two aspects of comprehensive price ratio and single price ratio.The rationality of price ratio of agricultural products could be judged by relative efficiency coefficient method. The results showed that the prices of agricultural products in this period had a rising trend, especially since 2006, the prices fluctuation of soybean, cotton and sugar were severe, while the grain price was relatively stable.The fluctuations of the price ratios of agricultural products were more stable and reasonable. In order to promote the stable development of agriculture and the rational allocation of resources, some recommendations were put forward, such as strengthening the government＇s macro regulation and control to stabilize grain production and improving the price monitoring and early waming mechanism of agricultural products.