摘要
从近几年的发展趋势来看,中国玉米的产量、消费量和进口量不断增长,而出口量减少。运用自回归积分滑动平均(ARIMA)模型对2016—2030年中国玉米产业的发展趋势做出预测分析,预测结果显示,2016—2030年中国玉米产量的增长速度会有所下降,而玉米总消费量的增长速度将会明显超出产量的增长速度,国内供需缺口会进一步扩大。最后,根据预测结果,对中国玉米产业的发展提出了相关建议。
From the development trend in recent years, the production, consumption and imports of China's maize continued growing, while the exports of maize decreased. In this paper, the ARIMA model was used to forecast the development trend of China's maize industry from 2016 to 2030, and the prediction results showed that the production growth rate of China's maize would decline, and the growth rate of total maize consumption would be significantly higher than the production growth rate, so the gap of domestic supply and demand would be further expanded. Finally, according to the results, the relevant suggestions were put forward for the development of maize industry in Chins
作者
苏日古嘎
恩和
Suriguga En He(School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021, Inner Mongolia)
出处
《农业展望》
2017年第3期33-37,共5页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(30101-141134)
关键词
玉米产业
供需
增长速度
进出口
ARIMA模型
发展趋势
maize industry
supply and demand
growth rate
import and export
ARIMA model
development trend