中国居民生活节能引导政策的效力与效果评估——基于中国1996-2015年政策文本的量化分析

Evaluation of policy efficacy and effect of resident energy conservation based on policy quantification in China from 1996 to 2015

为了评估中国政府在引导居民生活节能方面已颁布政策的效力和节能效果,收集了中国1996-2015年间颁布的引导居民生活领域节能行为的政策文件,将其划分为命令控制型、经济激励型、信息型和自愿参与型四种类型,从政策力度、政策目标、政策措施和政策反馈四个维度建立评估模型,对65项政策文件进行了政策效力量化分析和节能效果评估。研究结果显示:①中国政府发布的引导居民生活节能的政策数量与各年政策整体效力呈同向变化且波动较大,政策的年平均效力水平变化平稳且整体较低,政策效力的变化主要由政策发布数量驱动,政府对政策文件本身的内容效力重视不够;②政策文本效力的四个维度中,政策措施较多,但政策力度偏低,政策目标缺乏量化,政策反馈不足,导致政策年均效力难以有效提升;③政府的政策偏好与政策工具的实际节能效果出现偏差。中国政府的政策颁布一直以命令控制型政策为主,其他政策工具为辅,而政策工具节能效果检验却显示命令控制型政策的节能效果并不显著,经济激励型政策和信息型政策的节能效果更好。

Chinese policy documents guiding the energy-saving behavior of residents in daily life were collected from 1996 to 2015 to evaluate content efficacy and energy saving effects. Based on a policy instruments view, the policies are divided into command-and-control policy, economic incentives policy, informational policy and volunteering policy. An evaluation model was built with the four dimensions of policy power, policy goals, policy measures and policy feedback. Sixty- five policies were included in the quantitative analysis and decomposed by year, policy instrument and dimension to study development trends and content efficacy. Energy effects were tested using regression modeling by introducing residential energy consumption per capita. We found that policy document number and policy efficacy move together and quickly, but policy annual mean efficacy is entirely stable and low. Policy efficacy is mainly driven by enacted policy number and the government does not pay enough attention to policy document content. From four dimensions of policy evaluation, policy measures are rich, while policy power is comparatively low, policy goals lack quantifiable data and feedback is insufficient. These characteristics of resident energy- saving policies lead to policy annual average efficacy improvement difficulties, and do not seem conducive to implementing and adjusting the policies. The energy saving effect of policy instruments go awry with government policy preferences. The Chinese government puts command- and-control policy first and other policy instruments secondary in resident＇ s energy saving policy system, while the energy effect tests revealed that command-and-control policy energy saving effect is not significant, the energy saving effect of economic incentives policy and informational policy are better. The overall planning and cooperativity of policy are evolving. Some suggestions are put forward for enacting policy documents to guide the energy behavior of residents on a daily basis.