国际铁矿石贸易空间互动过程及中国进口策略分析

The interactive process of international iron ore trade and analysis of China's importation strategy

中国铁矿石进口量位居世界首位,研究铁矿石贸易在空间上的互动过程对中国铁矿石进口有参考价值。本文将国际铁矿石贸易的影响因素分为进口国因素、出口国因素以及阻力因素,分别构建进口国集聚、出口国集聚、进口国与出口国均集聚三种空间交互模型,并且将进口国因素分为需求因素和贸易因素对中国铁矿石进口进行预测。实证研究结果显示:①进口国的需求因素是影响铁矿石贸易的主要因素,产业结构、城镇化水平影响效应较大;②进口国的贸易因素对铁矿石贸易具有较强的影响;③出口国的资源储量是影响出口的重要因素,技术水平和贸易程度影响较小;④地理距离与铁矿石贸易存在着正U型关系,经济距离与铁矿石贸易存在着倒U型关系,但U型拐点过后距离与贸易之间的关系变弱;⑤铁矿石进口的峰值滞后于需求峰值2年左右,中国铁矿石进口峰值预计在2018年左右到达。最后,本文通过分析中国铁矿石进口市场结构对中国铁矿石未来进口提供了相关的政策建议。

China＇s iron ore imports ranked first in the world. The research on the interactive process of iron ore trade has reference value for China＇s iron ore imports. The influence factors of intemational iron ore trade were divided into import country factors, export country factors and resistance factors based on gravity modeling. Spatial interactive modeling was then used to estimate model parameters. In general, three kinds of spatial interactive models are estimated： the agglomeration of the import country; agglomeration of the export country; and agglomeration of the import country and the export country. We divided import country factors into demand factors and trade factors and used these to forecast China＇ s iron ore imports. We found that demand factors of importing countries are the main factors affecting iron ore trade, effects of industrial structure and urbanization are significant. The trade factors of importing countries have a strong influence on iron ore trade. The resource reserves of exporting countries are important factors that affect the export, but technical and trade factors are weaker. There is a positive U type relationship between geographical distance and iron ore trade, and an inverted U relationship between economic distance and iron ore trade. However, the relationship between distance and trade becomes weak, when inflection point of the U curve appears. The peak value of iron ore imports lags the peak demand by two years, and China＇s iron ore imports peak is expected to arrive in 2018. Finally, we analyze the market structure of China＇s iron ore imports and provide relevant policy recommendations.