中国省际畜牧业碳排放测度及时空演化机制

Provincial animal husbandry carbon emissions in China and temporal-spatial evolution mechanism

畜牧业是重要的碳排放源,中国作为畜牧业大国,测度畜牧业碳排放量并揭示其时空演化机制具有重要意义。运用全生命周期评价方法,测度了2000-2014年中国大陆31个省区的畜牧业碳排放,从时间和空间两个层面揭示了中国畜牧业碳排放的变化特征,进而采用动态面板数据模型揭示了畜牧业碳排放和城乡居民收入、城镇化之间的互动机制。结果表明:①2000-2014年,中国畜牧业碳排放总量由12669.899万t增长到13189.955万t,年均增速0.288%,其中畜禽胃肠发酵和粪便管理系统产生的碳排放是其主要来源,两者占畜牧业碳排放总量比重达74.48%~79.50%;②研究期内,中国高、低畜牧业碳排放区空间格局基本保持不变,偏高、中度畜牧业碳排放区呈现出明显的动态演变态势,高、偏高畜牧业碳排放区基本位于边疆草原地区和粮食主产区,且排名前10位的畜牧业碳排放省区占全国畜牧业碳排放比重达57.50%;③2000-2007年,草原牧区是中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;而2007-2014年,农耕牧区演变为中国畜牧业碳排放增长的核心区;④农民人均纯收入、城镇居民人均可支配收入和城镇化对畜牧业碳排放的影响系数分别为0.078、0.127和-0.145,三者动态变化将共同决定今后一段时间中国畜牧业碳排放增长的时空格局。

Using life cycle assessment （LCA）methods, animal husbandry carbon emissions in 31 provinces of China from 2000-2014 were measured and spatial and temporal characteristics revealed. Using dynamic panel data model （GMM）, the interaction mechanisms between animal husbandry carbon emissions, per capita net income of rural residents （PCNIRR） , per capita disposable income of urban residents （PCDIUR）and urbanization were also analyzed. We found that from 2000 to 2014,the total amount of animal husbandry carbon emissions in China increased from 126.936 million tons to 131.335 million tons, with average annual growth rate of 0.244%, of which gastrointestinal fermentation of livestock and manure management systems carbon emissions were the two main sources, accounting for 74.14%-79.67% of total animal husbandry carbon emissions. During the study period, China＇s high and low animal husbandry carbon emissions areas were relatively stable, while slightly high and moderate animal husbandry carbon emission areas showed clear dynamic evolution. High animal husbandry carbon emissions areas were mostly located in prairie areas or major grain producing areas of China, and the top 10 animal husbandry carbon emissions provinces accounted for 57.50% of the total animal husbandry carbon emissions in China. During 2000-2007, prairie pastoral areas were increasingly the center of animal husbandry carbon emissions, however this shifted to farming pastoral areas from 2007-2014. The coefficients of PCNIRR, PCDIUR and urbanization to animal husbandry carbon emission were 0.078, 0.127 and-0.145, respectively, meaning that interactions between these three factors will determine future temporal and spatial evolution pattems of animal husbandry carbon emission growth in China.