中国对外贸易商品结构合理度评价——基于投入产出模型的分析

Evolution of Structure Rationality of China's Trade Products——Based on Input-output Model

文章基于2012年投入产出表从时间序列角度对中国进出口商品结构演变进行了实证研究,报告了中国对外贸易商品结构的合理度现状,通过采用投入产出分析方法,识别中国经济发展的支柱产业与瓶颈产业,得出中国机械设备制造业、金属产品制造业、化学工业的影响力系数与推动力系数均较大,产业影响力系数排序与出口占比排序不一致、推动力系数与进口占比不一致现象并存,出口、进口商品合理度总体均呈下滑趋势的基本结论。研究提出提高中国金属产品制造业与化学工业等支柱产业出口占比、提升采掘业与化学工业等瓶颈产业进口占比、长期动态跟踪观测与及时采取措施优化进出口商品结构等政策建议,以期实现中国对外贸易与产业经济高度协调发展的目的。

The evolution and rationality of China＇s trade products structure have been measured by input-out table in 2012 from the Angle of time sequence. The pillar industries and bottleneck industries are identified by import-output method. Research found that the influence and thrust coefficient of mechanical equipment manufacturing, metal products manufacturing and chemical industrial are all larger. The sort of industrial influence coefficient is not in line with the sort of export proportion. The sort of thrust coefficient is also not in line with the sort of import proportion. The rationality of export and import are all in decline. The countermeasures, such as enhancing the export proportion of metal products manufacturing and chemical industry, upgrading the import proportion of extractive industry and chemical industry, long-term dynamic track and observation, taking timely measures to optimize the structure of import and export, are proposed in order to realize the highly coordinated development of China＇s foreign trade and industrial economy.