基于博弈论分析蔬菜一级市场的信息状态

Identification and Analysis of the Information Status of the Primary Market of Vegetables Based on Game Theory

为识别我国蔬菜一级市场在2004-2015年所处的信息状态,并分析该市场在该信息状态下的运行状况及买卖双方的利益分配结果,基于博弈论构建了理论模型,分析了在交易活动中4种不同的市场信息状态对交易结果产生的影响,并用现实数据进行了实证分析。结果发现,我国蔬菜一级市场在2004-2015年一直处于市场信息不完全的状态,其中2004年以后是买家占优的信息不对称状态,这种信息状态对市场及卖家造成了不利影响。进而指出,政府要加大投入建设农业信息化,推进基础设施建设;技术装备简单化、培训直接化;优先促进关键信息服务,带给农民看得见的利益。

In order to identify the information status of the primary market of vegetables in China from 2004to 2015,and to analyze the operating situation of the market and allocations of profits between buyers and sellers under such information status,this research build theoretical models based on game theory to analyze effects of 4different market information status in the trading and the trading results,and then conduct empirical analysis by using real life data.The results point out that the primary market of vegetables in China from 2004to 2015has been under the status of incomplete information.There was an information asymmetry with buyers in a dominant position since 2004,which imposed negative effects on sellers and the market.It is suggested that the government should increase investments in agricultural informatization construction,promote infrastructure construction;simplify technical installation,make training more available;and preferentially promote services of key information to bring farmers tangible benefits.