新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在现代有轨电车沉降预测中的应用

Application of Metabolism GM(1,1)Model in Modern Tramcar Settlement Prediction

目前灰色模型在建筑物、边坡、高铁等领域的沉降预测中的应用研究较多,而在现代有轨电车中的沉降预测中应用比较少,并且现代有轨电车在运营阶段的沉降变化量较小。用灰色GM(1,1)模型和新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对有轨电车筏板的沉降监测点的监测数据进行预测并比较。结果表明,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型剔除了旧数据,增加了新的预测数据,提高了模型预测精度。验证了模型在现代有轨电车筏板进行沉降预测的可行性,为今后类似情况的沉降监测预测提供参考和借鉴。

At present,the applications and researches of grey model in the settlement prediction of various industries such as building, side slope and high-speed rail are relative more, but the application in settle- ment prediction of modern tramcar is relative fewer and the settlement variation of modern tramcar during the operation stage is relative small.Utilize the GM（1,1） model and metabolism GM（1,1） model to predict the monitoring data of settlement monitoring point of modern tramcar raft and compare these data, the me- tabolism GM（1,1） model deletes the old data and add the new prediction data,it improves the model pre- diction precision.Propose the application feasibility of metabolism GM（1,1） model in the modern tramcar settlement prediction, provide the reference and experience for settlement monitoring and prediction of sim- ilar situation.