基于广义出行成本的出行方案优化

Trip scheme optimization based on generalized trip cost

为了使出行成本更加符合出行者的认知规律,运用结构方程建模方法模拟出行成本,个体特征及出行决策之间的影响关系.引入敏感系数调整服务属性在出行成本中的贡献率,利用出行意愿调查数据对敏感系数进行标定.考虑出行者对抵达时刻的选择偏好,假设行程时间服从正态分布条件下,对最佳出发时刻及期望出行成本进行寻优求解,结果表明它取决于期望到达时刻,行程时间的期望值及方差,出行者对早到损失及晚到延误损失时间成本的相对大小.研究成果可为制定个性化及最优化出行决策方案提供依据.

In order to make optimal trip scheme based on travelers＇ perception of trip cost, which was described by sensitivity coefficients applied here, the influencing relationship among trip cost, personal feature and trip decision was simulated by structural equation model. The path coefficients was calibrated by stated preference survey data as recommended value of sensitivity coefficients. Considering the travelers＇ choice preference and assuming that travel time obeyed the normal distribution, the solving result of optimal departure time model showed that optimal departure time depended on desired arriving time, expectations of travel time and variance, relative value difference of time cost between early losses and late losses. The methodology here was useful for making personalized and optimized trip scheme.