变化的世界,不确定的时代——当前国际秩序演变的趋势

The Changing World and Uncertain Times——The Current Trend of the Evolution of the International Order

随着国际秩序调整、分化的日趋深入,如何看待国际关系中的"变"与"不变"成为摆在我们面前的重要课题。在这样一个形势变动复杂、充满不确定性的时期,既要看到可能影响世界发展方向的不确定性和风险,也要看到一些曾长期影响世界走向的基本趋势并未根本改变。尽管目前系统描述未来世界与国际秩序的清晰轮廓尚有难度,但正如世界历史曾反复展现的那样,危机往往孕育着转机,世界和国际秩序或将在调整和动荡中掀开新的发展篇章。

With the adjustment of international order and the deepening of its differentiation, how to treat the ＂changes＂ and the ＂uncbanges＂ in international relations has become an important subject before us. In such a complex and volatile situation, it is necessary to notice the uncertainties and risks that may affect the direction of world development, and also see that some basic trends that have long influenced the world development have not fundamentally changed. Although it is still difficult to systematically and clearly describe the future world and international order, but as the world history has repeatedly shown, the crisis often breeds a turnaround opportunity, the world and international order may open a new chapter for development among adjustment and turmoil.