特朗普时期的亚洲经济:挑战与变数

The Asian Economy during Trump's Presidency:Challenges and Uncertainties

特朗普执政将引发美国经济政策、对外政策做出重大变革。这种政策变革的基本方向将体现为"美国优先"与"美国再次强大",其背后的价值理念是重建以犹太—基督文明为基础的开明资本主义模式。具体到对外经济政策上将表现为以反全球化为突出特色。这可能会给亚洲新兴经济体带来重大冲击,诸如美元升值周期所引发的债务风险,区域内全球价值链受到扰乱的风险,出口导向型模式难以持续的风险,亚洲区域经济一体化进程发生逆转的风险,等等。对此,亚洲新兴经济体必须未雨绸缪,从培育最终消费市场到建立新型区域经济合作机制,探索适应新国际环境的发展模式。

Trump administration will bring major changes to the US economic policy and foreign policy. The basic direction of this policy change will be reflected as ＂America first＂ and ＂make America strong again＂, the idea behind it is to rebuild the liberal capitalist model based on the Jewish-Christian civilization. As for foreign economic policjy; it will be clearly characterized by anti- globalization. This could have a significant impact on emerging economies in Asia, such as the debt risk caused by the US dollar appreciation cycle, the risk of disruption to the global value chain within the region, the risk of the unsustainable export-oriented model, and the risk of the reversal of the Asian regional economic integration process. In this regard, the Asian emerging economies must take precautions, cultivate the final consumer market, establish new regional economic cooperation mechanism, and explore new development model adapting to the international environment.