论东亚区域合作中的若干不确定性问题

On Some Uncertainties in Regional Cooperation in East Asia

虽然东亚合作的历史非常短暂,但中日韩合作在不到二十年的时间内已经取得了一系列成就,形成了多元复合治理的区域合作发展态势。在英国脱欧、美国特朗普总统上台以及中日韩关系遇冷等因素的影响下,东亚合作中的不确定因素增加,具体表现为中美竞争加剧、各国双边关系问题增多、地区热点问题升级和各国国内政局不稳等。如果管控失当,东亚合作就会面临停滞和倒退的危险。然而,这些不确定性也具有一定的相对性,也就是说,不确定之中也有一些确定的因素,不确定之中可能蕴含新的机遇。只要东亚各国加强交流,正确处理敏感问题,抓住机遇,就一定能够开辟东亚合作新的前景。

Although the history of East Asian cooperation is very short, the China-Japan-South Korea cooperation has achieved a number of achievements in less than two decades, and formed a regional cooperation and development pattern of all-round governance. As Britain leaves European Union, President Trump takes office and the China-Japan-South Korea relations reach a low point, uncertain factors increase in East Asian cooperation, including that the Sino-US competition is intensified, problems arise surrounding bilateral relations, regional hot issues escalate and many countries see domestic political instability. If the problems get out of control, East Asian cooperation will face the risk of stagnation and regression. However, these uncertainties also have a certain degree of relativity, that is, there are some certainties among the uncertainty, which may contain new opportunities. As long as the East Asian countries strengthen exchanges, correctly handle sensitive issues, and seize the opportunity, they will be able to open up new prospects for their cooperation.