“一带一路”背景下中国与东盟经济周期联动研究

Trends of Economic Cycle Synchronization between China and ASEAN

随着中国与东盟区域经济一体化进程的加速,中国与东盟经济关系不断扩大,双方的经济依存度日益提高,中国与东盟主要国家的经济周期的联动性有所增强。以"一带一路"为背景探讨中国与东盟经济周期联动性的趋势变化及其影响因素,研究结果显示,中新经济周期联动性最高,2007年2季度以后,中泰、中菲、中越的联动性有明显的下降趋势,但中新、中马的联动性趋势上升。在影响双方经济周期联动性的因素中,国际贸易有显著影响,而金融与政策的影响并不显著。

With the acceleration of regional economic integration,the continuous expansion of economic relations and the increasing economic interdependency,the degree of synchronization between China and ASEAN has increased. Against the background of 'the belt and road ',we examine the trends and drivers of synchronization between China and ASEAN. The empirical results show a highest degree for Singapore and China,a downward trend for Thailand and China,the Philippines and China,Vietnam and China while a upward trend for Singapore and China,Malaysia and China since the 2nd quarter in 2007. Trade integration plays a role in synchronising activity,rather than financial linkage and policies.