汇率对中等收入国家经济跨越的影响研究

The Role of Exchange Rate on Middle Income Countries' Economic Leap

汇率稳定对经济增长的宏观影响这一问题并未引起主流经济学的足够关注。中等收入国家处在国际经济体系外围、经济开放程度高、汇率与物价双向作用明显,汇率不稳定对实际经济增长的负面影响更显著。本文梳理全球1980年以来中等收入阶段国家汇率制度选择和经济跨越表现的有关事实,建立分解框架解构汇率在经济跨越中的作用,基于面板向量自回归模型量化分析汇率和通胀的双向传递效应,构造汇率稳定指标对汇率波动和实际经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,揭示汇率不稳定对经济跨越的影响,对中等收入国家汇率稳定和管理提出政策建议。

Mainstream economics does not pay enough attention to exchange rate stability. While instability of exchange rate tends to have more significant negative effects on middle income counties due to their peripheral status among the world economy relative to high income countries, deeper participation to the world market relative to low income countries and bidirectional effects between exchange rate and domestic price. This paper examines exchange rate behavior of middle income countries during the process of economic leap since 1980, builds a framework to decompose the effects of exchange rate on economic leap, analyzes the bidirectional pass -through between exchange rate and inflation quantitatively using a panel VAR model, constructs indicator to test the effects of exchange rate instability on economic growth and proposes suggestions on improving exchange rate stability and economic performance of middle income countries.