高投资、结构失衡与价格指数二元分化

High Investment,Structural Imbalance,and the CPI & PPI Deviation

2012年3月以来,在CPI基本平稳的情况下,PPI持续下行。在这之前,两者变化幅度虽然不同,但方向基本相同。此次方向性持续分化是前所未见的新现象。本文认为这一新特征是此次反危机中政府主导的投资率迅速提高累积产生的经济结构变化的结果,其中,总需求结构的调整是CPI与PPI分化的诱因,供给侧的部门间资源转移障碍是分化的放大器。因此,作为经济结构问题表现的价格方向性分化不能简单用货币政策矫正,需要从启动民间投资、处理僵尸企业等改革入手,释放市场内生动力、降低资源转移障碍。

China has been experiencing the unprecedented CPI ＆ PPI deviation since March 2012. This paper points out the rapidly increasing investment rate owing to the anti - crisis policy is one of the possible explanations. From the demand side, lack of market investment demand during the post - crisis period highlights the role of the consumption demand, resulting in the deviation directly. From the supply side, resource allocation barriers across sectors amplify the deviation. Therefore, it is necessary to implement reforms such as attracting investment from the private sector, restructuring of zombie enterprises, other than the monetary policy to address this~ challenge.