我国落入债务陷阱了吗?--理论模型与经验证据

Is China in a Debt Trap: Theory and Evidence

本文基于非线性模型预测控制方法,从理论上分析了债务陷阱的发生机制。研究结果表明,当负债处于较低水平时,经济表现为债务驱动型,而随着债务水平不断上升,当负债率超过某一阈值后,出现负债率上升和实体经济下行的背离走势,从而经济陷入债务陷阱。本文进一步基于企业数据实证研究证实了上述理论分析,并表明,从企业层面来看,我国已落入债务陷阱状态。上述研究结果所派生的政策含义是,数量型货币刺激政策并无益于解决当前经济增速下滑问题,要重在通过降息、资本重组和发展股权市场等方式来去杠杆和刺激投资。

This paper analyzes the mechanism of a debt trap in theory by using the nonlinear model predictive control method. The results show that when the debt is at a low level, the debt has a positive influence on the real economy. But with the rising debt level, the real economy is downward after excessive debt reached a certain threshold which means the economy in a debt trap. Empirical studies confirm the above theoretical analysis, and show that China＇s economy has fallen into the debt trap from firm＇s evidence. The policy implications of the above findings are that quantitative monetary stimulus policies are not conducive to solving the current economic slowdown. On the contrary, the way of cutting interest rates, capital restructuring to stimulate investment should be adopted.