中国生育水平的空间与社会趋同研究——基于“五普”和“六普”微观数据的比较分析

The Spatial and Social Convergence of Chinese Fertility:Evidence from 2000 and 2010 Census Microdata

本研究以2010年中国第六次人口普查微观数据为基础,采用35岁妇女平均曾生子女数作为终生生育率的估计指标对当前中国的生育水平进行分析。研究发现,当前中国妇女的终生生育率为1.52,通过教育部9岁学龄儿童人数估算的妇女终生生育率也介于1.5~1.6之间,因此,当前中国已经处于低生育水平国家行列。不同省(自治区、直辖市)、民族、文化教育程度、职业、城乡、农业户籍和非农业户籍、流动人口与户籍人口的生育水平有趋同的发展态势。

Using microdata from the 2010 census of China, the tion is estimated based on the average total number of children completed fertility rate of China＇ s populaever born reported by 35-year-old women. The total fertility rate calculated from census data is 1.52 births per woman. The fertility rate can also be estimated based on the total number of school-age children counted at age 9, resulting in a total fertility rate between 1.5 and 1.6. China is among the world＇ s many countries that have a low fertility rate today. The fertility levels within China display a trend of convergence between various groups including different geographic regions, urban and rural areas, different ethnic groups, the whole range of educational levels, and the migrant population compared to the registered permanent non-migrant population.