中国产业结构升级对碳减排的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Carbon Emission Reduction in China

产业升级与节能减排存在交互效应和空间效应,将这两个中央正在实施的国家发展战略置于统一框架内研究具有重要意义。通过构建产业结构高级化指标,选取我国2005-2014年的省际面板数据,以碳排放的空间相关性检验为基础,从全国层面和区域层面对我国产业结构升级的碳减排效应进行实证分析。研究结果表明:产业结构升级能够减少碳排放,但受制于工业结构落后等原因,我国产业结构升级的碳减排效应还有待进一步激发;区域层面上产业结构升级对碳减排的空间溢出效应存在显著的区域异质性。因此,各省在制定产业发展战略、促进碳减排时,应结合区域特点制定产业政策,加强区域合作,加快工业结构转型升级。

Based on the constructed industrial structure upgrading index and results of spatial correlation test of carbon emissions,we selects the 2005-2014 provincial panel data to analyze the carbon emission effect of Chinese industrial structure upgrading from the national level and regional level. The results show that the upgrading of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions,but subject to the backward industry structure,the carbon emission reduction effect of the industrial structure upgrading in China still needs to further stimulate; In region,spatial spillover effects of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions have significant spatial heterogeneity. Based on the above research,this paper provides the relevant policy.