大国安全竞争与东南亚国家的地区战略转变

Great Power Competition and the Evolution of Southeast Asia States' Regional Strategy

外部大国之间的互动塑造着东南亚地区秩序,影响该地区中小国家的战略选择。与大国对立强化或削弱东南亚国家作用的传统观点不同,作者认为,大国间安全竞争对东南亚国家对外战略的影响会在"有利"和"不利"之间相互转化。战略空间是这一影响机制中的核心要素。大国竞争的加剧对战略空间大小的影响不仅是逐步实现的,而且会产生差异化的结果。当大国在特定地区和议题上进入包容性竞争时,相关东南亚国家的战略空间将变得充裕,大国平衡战略更有可能成为它们的选择。而包容性竞争加剧后,大国在原有议题上的竞争更加激烈,同时竞争覆盖比以往更大的地理范围和更多的议题领域。与原有议题相关或处在核心地区的国家的战略空间将被挤压。而包容性竞争拓展到的新地区和议题将使之前未参与大国竞争的国家开始成为被争取的对象,拥有比从前更大的战略空间。一旦大国竞争向全面对抗或战争过渡,多数东南亚国家的战略空间将被显著压缩,"选边站"的压力将会大幅增加。

The interaction between external powers dominates the order of Southeast Asia and affects the strategic choices of small and medium-sized states in the region.Traditional views emphasize the strengthening or weakening effect of the great power rivalry on Southeast Asia states’role in the region.This paper,however,argues that the impact of great power competition on the strategy of Southeast Asian states will be transformed between positive and negative.Strategic flexibility is the central element of this impact mechanism.The impact of the intensified competition on the degree of the strategic flexibility is not only gradually realized,but also results in strategic differenti ation.When great powers enter inclusive competition in specific areas and issues,the strategic flexibility of the relevant Southeast Asia states will become ample and the balance of powers strategy is more likely to be their choice.If inclusiveness competition intensifies,the great powers are more competitive on the original issues,while competition covers more geographical areas and more issues than ever before.The strategic flexibility of states associated with the original issue or in the core region will be squeezed.On the contrary,the areas and issues newly involved into inclusive competition will make the relevant states become the new object that great powers fight for.And these states will have a greater strategic flexibility than before.Once great power competition evolves into full confrontation or war,the strategic flexibility of most Southeast Asian states will be significantly compressed,and the pressure to'choose side'will be greatly increased.