俄罗斯经济社会形势分析

Economic and Social Situation of Russia

目前看,俄罗斯经济中有五大正面因素:俄罗斯是自给自足的大经济体 ;有较为雄厚的外汇储备和储备基金;财政缺口不大,不会出现严重危机;经济出现了新亮点;政局总体稳定。但面临的困难也不少,经济结构不合理、人口生产乏力、投资不足,加上居民收入降低、消费价格上涨、失业、拖欠工资和贫富分化等社会问题,2017年俄罗斯经济只可能实现0.5%—0.8%的微弱增长,俄罗斯始于2014年的经济困难将延续到2018年。在这种形势下,中俄经贸合作:第一,双方应该加强在全球经济治理方面的合作;第二,中国应加强对俄经贸合作中的"顶层设计",重点项目重点推进 ;第三,中国应管控好对俄能源合作的风险,积极扩大农业领域合作。

At present, the Russian economy has five positive factors： Russia is a self-sufficient big economy; with adequate exchange reserves and reserve funds; its financial gap is small without no risk of serious crisis; it shows new highlights in economy; its overall political status is stable. Despite these positive factors, a lot of social issueshave been exposed, e.g.： irrational economic structure, inadequate population production, lack of investment, lower resident income, rising consumer prices, unemployment, wage arrears, and income disparity. In 2017, Russian economic growth is expected to be only 0.5%-0.8% and its economic difficulty which began in 2014 will be continued until 2018. In this situation, the Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation is established： firstly, both sides should strengthen the cooperation in global economic governance; secondly, China should strengthen the ＂top-level design＂ in its economic and trade cooperation with Russia and prioritize the key programs; thirdly, China should put the risks of its energy cooperation with Russia under control, and proactively expand their cooperation in agricultural sector.