现金流预测经验与分析师现金流预测行为

Cash flow forecasting experience and analyst cash flow forecasting behavior

本文检验了现金流预测经验对分析师现金流预测行为的影响,研究发现,一般的现金流预测经验不影响现金流预测精确性和及时性,特定公司层面的现金流预测经验越丰富,现金流预测精确性越低,但及时性越高,这与分析师预测的权衡理论和羊群行为理论吻合。本文进一步研究发现有预测经验的分析师倾向于发布激进的现金流预测,并且发布的现金流预测更具有信息含量,说明预测经验对现金流预测精确性和及时性的影响更符合羊群行为理论的解释。最后,本文解释了有经验的分析师愿意牺牲预测精确性而发布及时的现金流预测的原因在于预测及时性有助于职业发展,分析师劳动力市场能够识别现金流预测的羊群行为。

This paper examines the impact of cash flow forecast experience on analysts＇ cash flow forecast behavior, and finds that general cash flow forecasting experience does not affect cash flow forecast accuracy and timeliness, but cash flow fore- casts are less accurate and more timely when the analysts are with more firm-specific forecasting experience, which is consis- tent with tradeoff theory and herding theory of the analyst forecast. This paper further shows that the more experienced ana- lysts tend to release bold cash flow forecasts and their cash flow forecasts have more information content, which demonstrates that cash flow forecasting experience affects cash flow forecast accuracy and timeliness is more line with the explains of herd- ing behavior theory. Finally, this paper explains why the more experienced analysts are willing to sacrifice accuracy and release more timely cash flow forecasts, finds the reason is the forecast timeliness would be conductive to their career development, and labor market of the analysts can identify herding behavior of analysts＇ cash flow forecasts.