基于地表能量平衡和ARMA的南极洲地表温度研究

Research on the surface temperature of antarctica based on surface energy balance and ARMA

针对南极洲平均地表温度问题,借助MATLAB、EVIEWS、VC++等软件,综合运用了地表能量平衡、线性拟合、时间序列分析等方法,建立了地表能量平衡、多元线性回归、自回归移动平均等模型,定义与估计南极洲平均地表温度并对其随时间推移的变化情况进行了研究,得出南极洲在2015年6月正午的平均地表温度为-37.4543℃、当年平均地表温度受到滞后一期温度的影响等结论.

Aims to work out the average surface temperature of Antarctica. Based on MATLAB, EVIEWS and VC ＋ ＋, the surface energy balance, linear fitting, time series analysis and other methods were used to establish the models of Surface energy balance, Multiple linear regression, Autoregressive moving average and so on. We define and estimate the average surface temperature of Antarctica, meanwhile we do some research on the changes of average surface temperature with time goes on. The conclusions are the average surface temperature of Antarctica at noon in June 2015 is -37. 4543℃, and the average surface temperature is affected by next term and so on.