青岛地区夏季冷锋暴雨的预报方法

A FORECAST METHOD OF RAINSTORM WITH COLD FRONT IN QINGDAO'S SUMMER

用天气动力学和统计学相结合的方法 ,以地面影响系统为主要依据 ,对1983～2000年6～8月青岛地区的40次暴雨进行分型 ,分为气旋、台风和冷锋三种类型。根据预报经验 ,选取相应的预报因子 ,建立0 1权重回归方程 ,预报青岛地区未来24h的暴雨。对于冷锋类暴雨 ,本文认为来自低纬度西南低空急流是水汽、涡度的输送通道 ,它向暴雨区提供了暴雨所需的水汽和能量 ,因此把它列为起始场条件。因子选取了代表水汽、位势不稳定、能量的物理因子。统计得出 :冷锋类暴雨方程的准确率为13/14(92.9 % )。用此方法对1980年6～8月进行试报 ,没有出现空漏报现象 。

By the way of synoptic dynamics and statistics and on the basic of the condition of surface influence system,we classify the 40 rainstorms in Qingdao's region on in June-August from 1983 to 2000 as cyclone.typhoon and cold-front.According to the prediction experience,we choose the prediction factors and develop a 0-1 weighting regression equation to forecast the rainstorm within 24 hours in Qingdao's region in summer.For cold-frong rainstorm,the forecast accuracy is 13/14(92.9%).We used the way to forecast accurately the cold-front rainstorm of the summer in 1980.So this way is reliable.