生鲜乳生产模式转变的演化路径——基于市场机制与补贴机制的博弈分析

The Evolution Path of Raw Milk Production Mode Transition——Based on the Game Theory Analysis of Market Mechanism and Subsidy Mechanism

目前中国生鲜乳生产模式仍以散户模式为主,不仅影响生鲜乳质量水平的提高,同时也制约着中国乳制品行业发展。基于演化博弈模型,分析了市场机制与政府补贴机制下奶农与乳制品企业选择生产模式策略行为的动态演化过程。结果表明:系统具有多重演化路径,演化均衡策略的变化主要取决于奶农进入规模化养殖小区的超额收益、乳企投资规模化养殖小区的超额收益以及政府对于奶农的补贴。在此基础上,结合国情,针对生鲜乳生产模式转变提出相关政策建议。

Nowadays, raw milk is mainly supplied by smallholder dairy farmers or small-scale feeding bases in China, not only affecting the improvement of raw milk quality level, but also restricting the develop- ment of dairy industry. As the raw milk production mode is a key effect of the quality safety of milk sources, the dynamic evolution process of production mode decision between dairy farmers and dairy processing enter- prises under market mechanism and subsidy mechanism are analyzed based on an evolutionary game model. The results show that the evolution of system has multiple equilibriums, and the evolutionary stable strategies （ESS） are largely affected by the excess income of entering the scale breeding plots for dairy farmer, the ex- cess income of investing the scale breeding plots for enterprises as well as government subsidy for dairy farm- ers. Finally, some relative policy recommendations about milk sources construction are proposed according to China＇s national condition.