基于随机潮流的主动配电网运行风险评估

Operation Risk Assessment of Active Distribution Network Based on Probabilistic Power Flow

大量间歇性分布式电源(DG)的接入可能给配电网带来电压和功率越限的运行风险,建设具备主动管理能力的主动配电网是控制该风险的有效手段。本文提出了一种基于随机潮流的主动配电网运行风险评估方法。考虑风光荷的不确定性,以蒙特卡罗模拟来求解随机潮流;构建了配电网的运行风险指标;采用无功补偿设备优化调节、DG功率因数优化调节和DG有功出力优化削减相结合的主动管理手段对越限风险进行控制,并应用改进和声搜索算法来求解DG有功出力削减问题。结合算例,分析了3种场景下配电网的运行越限风险,验证了所提出模型和算法的正确性。

The accessing of a number of intermittent distrib- uted generations （DG） to distribution network may cause the operation risk of voltage and power limit violation. Active distribution network with the capability of active manage- ment is an effective way to control the risk. This paper pro- poses an operation risk assessment method of active distribu- tion network based on probabilistic power flow. By consid- ering the uncertainty of wind power, photovoltaic power and load, probabilistic power flow is solved by using Monte Carlo simulation. The operation risk index of distribution network is then established. In addition, active management strategy is applied to control the violation risk by combining such Optimized regulation methods as reactive power com- pensation, DG power factor and DG active power curtail- ment. In the end, improved harmony search algorithm is applied to solve the problem of DG active power output cur- tailment. Through case analysis, the operation risk of distri- bution network is studied in three scenes, and the correct-ness of the proposed model and algorithm are verified.