供给侧改革背景下财政社会保障支出对就业影响的非对称效应——基于面板门限回归模型的实证分析

The Asymmetric Influence of Regional Fiscal Social Security Expenditure on the Employment under the Background of Chinese Supply Side Reform——An Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Effect

国内经济增长速度下降以及人口红利逐步消减,调动生产要素的积极性是供给侧改革的核心[1],劳动是生产要素的一部分,因此合理发挥社会保障对就业的促进作用至关重要。以中国31个省1998-2014年的面板数据为样本,对东、中、西部地区进行分组回归,并以人均GDP为门槛变量,运用双重门槛模型,实证研究了财政社会保障支出对就业的非对称效应:经济发展水平越高,正向促进作用越明显。

The domestic economic slowdown and demographic dividend gradually faded. Arousing the enthusiasm of factors of production is the core of the reform of the supply side, and labor is part of the factors of it, so social security plays an important role on employment. The paper analyzes the asymmetric influence of regional fiscal social security expenditure on the employment based on the real GDP per capita, which are sampled from annual provincial data between 1998 and 2014, and provides a theoretical basis for the reform of the supply side. The study shows that the influence of regional fiscal social security expenditure on the employment differs in the stage of economic development.