省管县新模式“全面直管”改革政策效果分析——基于河南省的研究

Analysis on the Effect of a New Pattern of County Administrated by Provience Reform:Comprehensive Administration——Based on the Study of Henan Province

目前,学术界关于"省直管县"改革是否有促进经济社会发展的作用尚无定论,而现有的"扩权强县"和"财政直管"模式的弊端可能是造成这种争议的原因。2010年开始试点的新的省管县模式"全面直管"模式旨在纠正上述两种模式的弊端,但其政策效果究竟如何还未有研究揭示。基于河南省2003—2014年108个县(市)的数据,我们利用双重差分法(DID)和双重差分倾向匹配得分法(DID-PSM)首次对"全面直管"改革的效果进行了分析。研究发现,在控制了其他因素后,"全面直管"改革对试点地区的经济增长和民生状况均无积极影响,而且改革的负面效应比较明显:政策试点加重了试点地区的财政负担。这也是改革并未对经济发展和民生改善起到促进作用的原因之一。基于计量方法的稳健性,本文的实证结论相较以往研究更为可靠。我们认为试点政策与现有政策、制度的冲突和摩擦损害了改革的效果,只有通过全面推进"全面直管"改革,理顺各方面的政策和制度,才能使改革的效果真正显现出来。在此基础上本文对进一步的改革提出了政策建议。

At present,there is no definite conclusion on whether the county administrated by province reform can promote the economic and social development.And the drawbacks of the existing'empowering more power to county'pattern and'financial administration'pattern may account for this dispute.In 2010,a new pattern of county administrated by province reform,comprehensive administration was implemented,which aimed to correct the defects of empowering more power to county pattern and financial administration pattern.Yet the effect of this new reform is unknown.Based on the data of Henan Province from 2003 to 2014 which contains all the 108 counties(cities),the effect of this new pattern of county administrated by province reform was inspected with DID(Difference-In-Differences)and DID-PSM(Difference-In-Differences Propensity Score Matching)for the first time.After controlling other factors,no significantly positive impact on economic growth and people's livelihood change in pilot areas was found.In contrast,the negative effects of the reform are obvious:Pilot policy increased financial burden in pilot areas,which result in the reform's failure in promoting economic development and improvement of people's livelihood.Based on the robustness of the measurement methods,the empirical conclusions in this article are more reliable compared to previous studies.The conflict and friction between the pilot policy and existing policies and institutions undermine the effectiveness of the reform.Only by comprehensively pushing forward the reform of and rationalizing the policies and institutions in various fields can the effect of reform be manifested.Policy recommendations for future reform were given based on the analyses above.