中国牛奶市场供需关系及预测分析-基于局部均衡模型

Prediction of supply and demand of diary market in China-Based on partial equilibrium model

通过研究当期我国牛奶市场供求关系,预测未来我国牛奶市场供给与需求走势。以1990-2014年国内国际牛奶产量、价格、消费、贸易情况等为基础样本,建立包括牛奶供给、需求、进出口贸易、价格联系以及市场出清为内容的局部均衡模型,并对牛奶市场2015-2020年主要变量的发展状况进行预测。研究结果表明,牛奶供给受前一期奶牛存栏量以及牛奶价格影响较大,城乡居民牛奶消费受收入、价格、安全因素以及消费习惯影响较大。预测结果表明我国牛奶产量、城乡居民消费量以及进口量还将不断增加,国内牛奶价格将出现小幅持续上涨,未来国内牛奶市场还有很大潜力。

This research focused on demand and supply structure of China diary market to predict the future condition of supply and demand of diary market. According to the data of dairy production,price,consumption and trade in China and in the world,a partial equilibrium model of supply,demand,price,trade and market cleaning was built to predict the main factors of dairy market in 2015-2020. The result shows that cow amount of ahead period had a big influence to dairy price,and consumption was decided by income,price,quality,and net trade. The prediction shows that milk production,urban and rural dairy consumption and import will be rising;dairy price will increase in a low margin. Domestic dairy markets will create a big potential in the future.