基于SD模型的吐鲁番市生态-生产-生活承载力分析

Evolution trends of the ecological-economic-social capacities based on SD model in Turpan city

文中在SD模型的基础上建立吐鲁番市生态-生产-生活承载力模型,模拟该地区在生态城市相关指标下的生态、资源环境和经济三个系统的发展趋势,将其可持续指标体系引入承载力的评价,在多种参数的调控下,设计四种发展模式,选出最优。结果表明:将2010-2030年吐鲁番绿洲农业、工业增长率分别维持在11%、9%左右,乡村人口、城镇人口增长率分别控制在2.5%、1%,把耕地面积增长率和减少率分别控制在4%、2%,灌溉面积增长率控制在2.1%,地表水、地下水开发率分别降低为2.4%、3.8%,吐鲁番市2030年城市化率将达到50%,耕地面积达到70074hm^2,地表水减少到7.3013亿m^3,地下水资源量降到1.59亿m^3,水资源承载力、经济承载力、耕地承载力也处于相对平衡的状态。

Based on the SD model,we established the model of ecological system,economic system and social system carrying capacities in Turpan City,aiming to simulate the development trend of ecological system,resource and environment system and economic system in the relevant indicators of ecocity. Four development models were designed under various parameters,and the sustainable index system was introduced into the capacity evaluation system to find out the optimal one. The results showed that the agricultural and industrial growth rates of Turpan city in the 2010-2030 should maintain at 11% and 9%,the rural population and urban population growth rates be 2. 5% and 1%,respectively,the growth rate of cultivated land area be controlled in 4%,the reduction rate be of 2%,the growth rate of irrigation area be within 2. 1%,surface water and groundwater development rates be reduced to 2. 4% and 3. 8%. In 2030,the urbanization rate in Turpan will be 50%,the cultivated area reach 70074 hectares,the surface water reduc to 7. 3013 × 108m^3,groundwater resources to 1. 59 ×109m^3. Each bearing capacity is relatively in a state of balance.