泡沫经济崩溃后日本非常规利率政策效果实证研究——从“零利率”走向“负利率”

Empirical Research on Unconventional Interest Rate Policy of Japan after the Collapse of Bubble Economy:From Zero Interest Rate to Negative Interest Rate

非常规利率政策是日本央行针对本国经济"顽疾"的主要治疗方法。极低的利率水平,规模巨大的货币总量能否再次使得日本国内的资产价格偏离基本面从而引发新的金融和资产泡沫,值得人们警惕。实证分析表明:日本央行负利率政策仍很难产生明显的积极影响,反而在一定程度上使得消费者和企业变得更加消极,有使国内消费总需求进一步减少和国内投资环境进一步恶化的可能。因此,面对总需求不足的困境,日本经济的结构性改革迫在眉睫,缩小贫富差距,增加居民劳动报酬收入,提升整个社会的边际消费倾向是当务之急。

Unconventional interest rate policy is customarily applied by Japan central bank to resolve the eco- nomic stubborn ills. Whether extremely low interest rates and large amount of currency would make domestic assets prices deviate from fundamentals again,which in turn will cause new financial and asset bubbles？ That is worthy of people＇s attention. The empirical analysis based on VAR model shows that Japan central bank＇s negative interest rate policy is still difficult to produce obvious positive effect, but makes consumers and busi- nesses become more negative which is likely to worsen the domestic consumption demand and domestic invest- ment environment. Therefore, Japan＇s economic structural reform is urgent. In view of the plight of insufficient aggregate demand, narrowing down the gap between rich and poor, increasing labor remuneration and improving the marginal propensity to consume of the whole society are the top priority for Japan.