基于CVM的牧户对减畜政策的受偿意愿分析

The analysis of herdsmen's willingness to accept the reducing-livestock policy based on the CVM

研究牧民对草原生态保护补助奖励机制的受偿意愿,对完善新一轮(2016-2020)的草原生态补奖机制具有重要意义。选取甘肃省玛曲县为研究区域,通过条件价值评估法(CVM)调查研究区牧民对当前实施的减畜政策的态度和受偿意愿,初步的统计分析发现,被访牧户中有59.81%的牧户愿意减畜,而40.19%的不愿意减畜的牧户认为当前实施的补偿标准太低,无法弥补因减畜造成的家庭经济损失。通过计量模型分析发现:牧户对减畜的支持态度主要与家庭劳动力负担系数、草场承包规模、联户情况、草场健康状况以及牲畜规模呈正相关,与草场租赁情况呈负相关;而牧户对减畜的受偿意愿额度主要由牧户受教育年限、家庭牧业收入、草场承包规模、牲畜规模以及联户情况等决定;根据CVM法估算了被访牧户的受偿意愿的期望值为E(WTA)=12.61元/亩,而通过Tobit模型计算了被访牧户户均理论受偿意愿值为WTA=12.16元/亩,但在政策实施中玛曲县草畜平衡奖励标准为2.18元/亩,进一步说明现行补偿标准明显偏低。

Studying the willingness to accept the ＂ Grassland Ecological Protection Subsidies and Rewards Pro- gram＂ is important to improve the new round of grassland ecological complement prize mechanism （2016 - 2020）. We selected Maqu County in Gansu Province as the study area and used the contingent valuation method （CVM） to study the attitude to reduce livestock and willingness to accept for the respondents. The preliminary statistical analysis found that 59.81% of the respondents were willing to reduce the livestock, and 40.19% of the respondents were not willing to reduce the livestock, because they thought that the current implementation standard was too low to compensate for economic losses due to reducing domestic livestock caused. The econo- metric model analysis showed that the supportive attitude of herders reduce livestock relate was positively correla- ted with family labor dependency ratio, grassland contract scale, joint household situation, health status of pas- ture and scale livestock, and was negatively correlated with leasing status of pasture. The willingness to accept for the respondents was decided by education level, household income of animal husbandry, grassland contract scale, scale livestock and joint household situation. According to the CVM method, estimated expected value of willingness to accept of the respondents was E（WTA） = 12.61 Yuan/mu, and by Tobit model to calculate the average of the theory willingness to accept of the respondents, it was WTA -- 12.16 Yuan/mu. But actually, the compensation standard of the Livestock Balance in policy implementation in Maqu County was 2.18 Yuan/mu. These indicated that the current compensation standard was significantly lower.