税收竞争对城市经济增长的门槛效应

Threshold effects of tax competition on urban economic growth

基于中国271个地级及以上城市1626个税收竞争的面板数据,运用面板门槛模型实证检验了税收竞争对城市经济增长的影响。结果显示:税收竞争对我国城市经济发展具有显著的促进作用,但在不同产业结构水平上影响系数存在着非线性特征;处在"以服务业为主的经济发展阶段"的城市,税收竞争对城市经济增长的促进作用较明显,税收竞争指数每增加1个单位,可促进经济增长42.35%;处在"以工业化为主的经济发展阶段"的城市,税收竞争对城市经济增长的促进作用次之,税收竞争指数每增加1个单位,可促进经济增长26.43%;处在"以农业为主的经济发展阶段"的城市,税收竞争对城市经济增长的促进作用再次之,税收竞争指数每增加1个单位,可促进经济增长12.16%。研究结果验证了目前地方政府间税收竞争对城市经济增长的影响存在显著的门槛效应的假说,并据此提出了相关政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 1626 tax competi- tion in 271 Chinese cities, this essay uses panel threshold model to conduct empirical test on the effects of tax competition on the urban economic growth. The results show that the tax competi- tion of China has a significantly impetus on the urban economic development, but in different industrial structure level, the in- fluence coefficient present nonlinear characteristics, In the cities of ＂ services as the main stages of economic development＂ , tax competition has a significantly positive impetus on the urban eco- nomic development that the economy grows by 42.35% when tax competition index increases 1 unit; In the cities of ＂ industriali- zation as the main stages of economic development＂ , the econo- my grows by 26.43% when tax competition index increases 1 unit ; In the cities of ＂ agricultural as the main stages of economic development＂ region, the economy grows by 12. 16% when tax competition index increases 1 unit. The results verify that the current tax competition between local governments has a signifi- cant threshold effect on urban economic growth, and this essay puts forward the relevant policy recommendations on the basis of this results.