长江经济带粮食产量时空变化及驱动因素分析

Empirical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Grain Production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

本文运用变异系数、加权离差系数和GIS空间技术,分析2000—2014年长江经济带粮食产量时空变化,并采用固定效应模型探究长江经济带粮食产量驱动因素。结果表明:长江经济带粮食产量先持续下跌后波动增长,粮食产量波动趋于稳定,主产省粮食产量增长显著。粮食播种面积、化肥施用量、粮食单产、农村固定资产投资和农业税减免政策对粮食产量具有显著正向影响,而人均GDP对粮食产量则具有显著负向影响。

This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2014 by applying Deviation Coefficient, Weighted Variation Coefficient and the GIS,and explores the driving forces of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by using the Fixed Effect Model. The results show that the grain output of the Yangtze River Economic Belt increases unsteadily after a sustained decline, and the fluctuation of grain output tends to stabilize; the grain output of main producing provinces increases significantly; the grain acreage, fertilizer input, grain yield per unit area, fixed assets investment in rural areas and agricultural tax relief policy have a significantly positive effect on the grain output but the per capita GDP a negative one.