中国体育用品上市公司成长性预测研究——基于灰预测模型

Predictive Research on the Growth of Listed Sporting Goods Companies in China——Based on Gray Prediction Model

采用文献资料、数理统计等方法,基于2009—2013年的数据及灰预测模型,对中国19家体育用品上市公司的成长性进行预测,并分析其发展趋势。结果表明:趋于上升型的体育用品上市公司有如富贵鸟、喜得狼等;趋于下滑型的体育用品上市公司有中国动向、喜得龙等;保持稳定的体育用品上市公司有宝胜国际和安踏体育。总体而言,宝胜国际和安踏体育始终占据前2的位置,而探路者、中体产业、泰亚股份则始终处于末位,富贵鸟和喜得狼则上升势头迅猛。同时,研究提醒体育上市公司要注意成长资源和成长能力两者的均衡发展,避免出现资源缺失引起的成长障碍。

This paper aims to predict the growth of 19 listed sporting goods companies in China and their future prospects by means of literature review and mathematical statistics based on data from 2009 to 2013 and a gray prediction model. It is re-vealed that： among the listed sporting goods companies surveyed, Fuguiniao and Xidelang are growing; those that are on the de-cline include China Dongxiang and Xidelong; and Baosheng International and Anta Sports are among those remaining stable. 0- verall,Baosheng International and Anta Sports have always occupied the top two positions; Toread, China Sports Industry,and Taiya Co. Ltd are always at the bottom of the list; whereas Fuguiniao and Xidelang exhibit a rapid growth momentum. Mean-while ,findings from this study serve as a reminder for the listed sports companies to strive for a balanced development of both growth resources and capacity to avoid obstacles caused by a lack of the former.