川西高原地区SCMOC温度精细化指导预报质量检验及影响因子分析

Fine Guidance and Forecast of SCMOC Temperature in the Western Sichuan Plateau Quality Inspection and Analysis of the Affected Factors

利用2014~2015年阿坝州13站共730天08:00和20:00起报的SCMOC温度精细化指导预报资料,对比实况日最高(低)气温,进行预报质量检验。结果表明:日最高(低)气温预报准确率与预报时效成反比,两个时次预报的最低气温准确率高于最高气温,且最低气温预报准确率有明显的季节变化。08:00起报的日最低气温多出现负误差,其余预报最高(低)气温多出现正误差。日最低气温预报绝对误差与海拔高度有关。24h最高(低)气温预报绝对误差>4℃样本分析表明,温度平流、大气稳定度与非绝热过程对温度的影响明显,造成气温偏差的主要原因是降水及冷空气影响范围和强度,冷、暖平流影响偏差,高空槽强度和移动偏差等几方面。

By use of fine temperature guidance forecast SCMOC data of 13 stations in Aba county that takes a total of 730 days 08 ：00 and 20 ：00 from 2014 to 2015, comparing with the daily maximum （low） temperature, to predict the quality in-spection. The results show that the maximum （low） temperature forecasting accuracy is in inverse proportion to the forecast ef-fectiveness. The two predictions of the lowest temperature are higher than the maximum temperature, and the lowest tempera-ture forecast accuracy has obvious seasonal variation. The daily minimum temperature has many negative errors from 08 ： 00, and the rest forecast of the highest （low） temperature has many positive errors. The daily minimum temperature forecast absolute error is related to the altitude. The sample analysis of that the absolute error is larger than 4℃ according to the highest （low） temperature prediction in 24h shows that the temperature has obvious relation to the atmospheric stability and non - adiabatic process, the temperature deviation is caused by the precipitation and cold air range and intensity, cold and warm advection im-pact bias, trough strength and moving deviation and others.