“丝绸之路经济带”建设视域下的中俄贸易合作潜力分析

Analysis of China-Russia Trade Cooperation Potential from the Perspective of the Silk Road Economic Belt

中俄两国作为丝绸之路上的两大经济体,在丝绸之路建设的背景下,经贸合作越发重要。2012年开始受原油价格不断下跌、美英对俄实施经济制裁导致卢布兑美元汇率暴跌等因素的影响,中俄贸易增速减缓、甚至下滑。利用随机前沿引力模型对影响中俄贸易的因素进行了深入分析,结果表明中俄贸易前期快速增长主要得益于两国经济快速增长及双方不断开放市场,而汇率和不合理的贸易结构又对双边贸易发展产生了阻碍作用,最终导致中俄贸易潜力越来越小。因此,积极改善两国贸易结构,加强双方在加工工业、建筑业和新材料等领域的合作与交流,促进相互投资;同时,建立健全市场风险防范机制,化解汇率波动风险,可以提高中俄贸易的份额,激发中俄贸易潜力。

Being the two great economies on the Silk Road, the economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia is getting increasingly important in the background of constructing the Silk Road. Affected by the continuous decline of crude oil price as well as US and UK＇ s economic sanctions against Russia which results in the slump of currency exchange rate between Rouble and US dollars since 2012, the growth speed of China-Russia trade lowers and even declines. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis on the factors that affect China-Russia trade by using Stochastic frontier gravity model. The findings indicate the previous high-speed growth of China-Russia trade was mainly benefited from the rapid economic growth of the two countries and constant opening of market. On the other hand, the currency rate and unreasonable trade structure hold back the bilateral economic development and eventually lead to the gradual decline of trade cooperation potential. Therefore, China-Russia trade share can be increased and the potential can be stimulated by actively improving the two countries＇ trade structures, strengthening cooperation and exchanges between two countries in processing industry, construction industry and new materials, enhancing mutual investments, establishing and completing market risk prevention mechanism, and releasing currency fluctuation risk.