基于三维风险函数的电力生产事故隐患分级方法研究

Research on the Classification Method of Electricity Production Potential Accident Based on Three Dimensional Risk Function

为了构建科学有效的事故隐患排查治理长效机制,实现电力生产事故隐患分级监管,基于风险管理理论,在可能性和严重性的基础上,提出风险评价敏感性因素,建立电力生产事故隐患定性三维分级模型和风险定量分级模型。通过调研并结合专家意见以及电力企业实际,建立了电力生产事故隐患风险评估指标体系,使用层次分析法(AHP)计算了配电作业的各指标权重。参考国内现有的事故隐患分级标准,结合风险可接受准则将电力生产事故隐患风险等级划分为4级,为电力企业提供隐患风险分级标准,促进电力生产事故隐患快速分级。

In order to build a scientific and effective long - term mechanism of screening and disposition of potential accident and achieve classification and supervision of electricity production potential accident, accident risk assessment sensitivity factors were put forward and a risk qualitative ranking model and a three dimensional quantitative ranking model were also established based on the theory of risk management and considering the possibility and severity factors. Through investigation and combined with the expert opinion, as well as the actual situation of electric enterprise, the risk assessment index system of electricity production potential accident is set up, in which the AHP is applied to calculate the weights of every index in distribution and electrification risk ranking assessment index system. Referring to the existing potential accident classification standard in homeland and in accordance with risk acceptance criteria, the electricity production potential accident were divided into 4 levels,so as to provide risk grading standards for electric enterprises and promote the rapid ranking of electricity production potential accident.