为什么半城镇化率越来越高?——基于房价上涨的分析视角

Study of the Impact of Rising Housing Prices on Peri-urbanization

本文利用1999-2014年中国31个省市的空间面板数据,基于房价上涨的视角,运用空间探索性数据分析法(ESDA)和空间计量模型研究了中国半城镇化率的空间分布特征与半城镇化率持续上升的成因。研究发现:(1)中国人口半城镇化具有显著的空间正相关性和空间异质性,并且存在向东部沿海地区集聚的特征;(2)房价上涨显著推升了本省人口半城镇化率,而对周边省市影响不显著,本省房价上涨1%,本省半城镇化率上升约0.077个百分点;(3)推升人口半城镇化率的主要是住宅价格,其次是工业用房价格。研究表明,房价快速上涨不利于农业转移人口市民化。

Using the method of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis （ESDA） and spatial econometric model with panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2014, this paper analyses the spatial characters of peri-urbanization and the reason why the rate of peri-urbanization rises persistently. The results show that： （1） Chinese population peri-urbanization has significantly positive spatial correlation with the clustering characteristics of central-peripheral structure decreasing gradually from the East to the West. （2） Commodity housing prices significantly pushes up the rate of peri-urbanization in local province, which is increased by about 7.70% with housing prices rising for every one percent, but has no significant impact on the surrounding provinces and cities. （3） The rate of peri-urbanization is mainly driven by housing prices and industrial buildings＇ price. The conclusion is that the fast rising of housing prices is not beneficial to the urbanization of rural-urban migrants.