SWEIA艾滋病毒传染模型及应用

SWEIA HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model and Application

人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)是一种严重威胁生命的病毒,感染艾滋病毒患者一般经历四个阶段:i)艾滋病毒阴性的窗口期(W);ii)阳性的无症状潜伏期(E);iii)有症状期(Ⅰ);以及iv)移除阶段(A).为深入研究艾滋病传播过程,建立SWEIA艾滋病毒传染模型,定义基本再生数,分析无病与地方病平衡点的存在性和局部稳定性,根据2004至2015年中国艾滋病患者数据,采用遗传算法对SWEIA模型中参数进行估计.通过对基本再生数敏感性分析以及模型数值随参数不同而产生的变化,揭示艾滋病窗口期的接触率是影响艾滋病流行的主要原因之一.

Human immunodeficiency virus （HIV） is one of the major life threatening viruses that are spreading in China. The stage of HIV infection is divided into four stages： i） window period with HIV-negative （W）; ii） asymptomatic stage in latent period with HIV-positive （E）; iii） symptoms stage in the pre-AIDS stage （I） and iv） full-blown AIDS stage （A）, who will be removed or isolated. In order to study transmission of HIV/AIDS, deterministic model denoted by SWEAR model is developed. The basic reproduction number is defined. Mathematical analysis on existence and stability of equilibria is given. Based on the observe data of HIV/AIDS in China from 2004 to 2015, all parameters of model are analyzed and estimated by genetic algorithm. Sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number and the forecast results of the model are given, which contact rate of window period is one of the main reasons for HIV/AIDS epidemic.