东北三省城市经济增长动力实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Driving Forces of Urban Economic Growth in Northeast China

基于2000—2014年东北三省34个地级及以上城市的平衡面板数据,本文利用DEA模型的Malmquist指数方法对城市全要素生产率增长率进行测算并分析其地区差异性,并采用SFA方法对研究结论进行稳健性分析。实证结果表明:(1)2000—2014年东北三省城市总体的全要素生产率出现了正增长,但随时间的推移呈现出了震动式的下降趋势。在样本考察期间,东北三省城市总体全要素生产率年均增长率为2.3%,由技术效率改善(2.1%)和技术进步(0.2%)共同推动,且技术效率改善做出了主要贡献。(2)东北各省的城市总体全要素生产率均有显著的正增长,吉林省城市全要素生产率增长是由技术进步和技术效率改善双驱动,辽宁省城市的全要素生产率增长是由技术效率改善推动的,而黑龙江省城市全要素生产率增长则是由技术进步推动的。(3)东北三省城市经济增长质量相对较低,改善空间巨大。技术进步和技术效率同时出现正向变动的城市占据样本量的32.4%,还不及全部样本的三分之一。

Based on the balanced panel of 34 cities of three provinces in Northeast China from 2000 to 2014, this paper uses the Malmquist index method based on the DEA model to deeply analyze the TFP growth change and the differences of cities, and then makes use of the stochastic frontier analysis method to verify the robustness. The results show that ： （ 1 ） the average annual growth rate of northeast cities＇ TFP is 2.3%, and the main driving forces of the TFP growth are both the improvement of technical efficiency and technical progress, but the improvement of technical efficiency plays major role in the process. （2）The northeast cities have a significant improvement in total factor productivity. The improvement of technical efficiency and technical progress makes the contribution to the enhancement of total factor productivity in Jilin. However, technical efficiency and technical progress contribute to the growth rate of TFP in Liaoning and Heilongjiang respectively. （ 3 ） The quality of growth in northeast cities is rather low, so they have a lot of space to improve. There are only 32.4% of the total samples, less than one-third, where the improvements of technical efficiency and technical progress simultaneously have a significant positive growth rate.