“9·11”事件以来巴基斯坦阿富汗塔利班政策评析

Review of Pakistani Afghanistan Taliban Policy after the 9·11 Incident

[目的/意义]随着后撤军时代的到来,巴基斯坦成为阿富汗和平进程的关键。鉴于巴基斯坦与阿塔的长期隐秘关系,其阿塔政策直接关系到阿富汗和平进程的成败以及南亚地区的安全。对"9·11"事件以来巴基斯坦的阿塔政策分析有助于我们准确预判阿安全局势,为维护中国在阿利益,早做预案。[方法/过程]为此,运用历史研究方法对巴基斯坦的阿塔政策进行分阶段梳理和研究。[结果/结论]发现从穆沙拉夫政府后期到现在,巴基斯坦的阿塔政策充满实用性和矛盾性且受美国及巴印关系的影响较大,同时,政策的调整也关乎整个南亚地区安全局势的走向。新一届谢里夫政府的阿塔政策将有助于推动阿富汗乃至整个地区的和平进程。

[ Purpose/Significance ] With the arrival of withdrawal era, Pakistan becomes the key of the Afghan peace process. In consid- eration of long-term hidden relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan Taliban, Pakistani Afghanistan Taliban Policy directly relates to the success of the Afghan peace process and the security in South Asia. It is helpful for us to prejudge Afghanistan＇s security situation to analyze Pakistani Afghanistan Taliban policy since the September 11 attacks. According to that, we could make an emergency plan to safe- guard Chinese interests in Afghanistan. [ Method/Process] To this end, we use historical research methods to card and study the Pakistani Afghanistan Taliban Policy. [ Result/Conclusion] It is not hard to find that the Policy had the characteristics of practicability and contradic- tion and was strongly influenced by the United States and Pakistan-India relations since ＂9 · 11＂. Pakistani policy adjustments always af- fect South Asia regional security tendency. New Sharif government＇s Afghanistan Taliban Policy will promote peace process of Afghan and even the whole region.